FALTER Radio: Putin oder Prigoschin: Eine Wahl zwischen Pest und Cholera - #967

Die Fall der Sonnergespräche im Wienermuseumsquartier zu den heißen Themen des Jahres.

Mittwoch, den 30. August, nimmt die grüne Umweltministerin Leonore Gewessler-Platt.

Es geht um die drängende Frage, wie wir die Klimawende schaffen.

Umweltministerin Leonore Gewessler im Gespräch mit Barbara Todt und Katharina Krobshofer.

Mittwoch, den 30. August und 19 Uhr auf der Bühne im großen Hof im Museumsquartier in Wien.

Der Eintritt ist frei. Schauen Sie doch vorbei!

Sehr herzlich willkommen, meine Damen und Herren im Falter Radio.

Die Rebellion von Söldner Chef Jef Geni Prigoshin hat Vladimir Putin vorläufig überstanden.

Aber 48 Stunden lang hat am vergangenen Wochenende sein Regime geschwankt.

Bis auf 200 Kilometer sind die Rebellen an die Außengrenze Moskos herangekommen.

Unerkennbar ein Widerstand von Polizei, Geheimdienst oder von der Armee.

Auf den Einfahrtstraßen nach Moskau haben Bagger begonnen, die Fahrstreifen zu zerstören,

um den Anmarsch der Prigoshin-Leute zu blockieren.

Der Aufstand wurde schließlich abgeblasen.

Prigoshin ist angeblich im Exilien Pielarus angekommen.

Was mit seinen 20.000 sehr kampverfahrenen Söldnern passiert, ist unklar.

Es ist auf jeden Fall die schwerste Krise, die Vladimir Putin in den bald 24 Jahren seiner Herrschaft erlebt.

Im Krieg gegen die Ukraine waren die Söldner der Wagnergruppe die härtesten Kämpfer.

Sie sind jetzt nicht mehr einsatzfähig.

Was von den dramatischen Ereignissen zu halten ist, bespricht Falter Korrespondentin

Desashish Kovitz mit Nina Krushtsova in Moskau.

Nina Krushtsova lehrt an der New School in New York Politikwissenschaft

Sie ist die Urenkelin des früheren sowjetischen Staats- und Parteichefs Nikita Krushtsov.

Sie sind in Moskau.

Wurde ihr mehr schmerzt, dass Prigoshin diese Mutinie gewinnt oder dass Putin es gewinnt?

Hi, danke.

Erstens, es war nicht wirklich eine Überraschung.

Ich habe einen Artikel über drei Wochen vorhin geschrieben,

dass es passieren würde, wenn Putin immer noch schmerzt.

Wenn Putin immer noch schmerzt,

dass er Prigoshin gewinnt,

und dass er einen mehr schmerzigen Nationalist als Putin

für die Putein-Armee gewinnt.

Putin mag diese Putein-Berechnung, die einen gegen den anderen gewinnt,

weil das ihm für alle Parteien, die in Ordnung sind,

als er die Arbiteur von dem, der aufhört und der, der aufhört.

Er hat Prigoshin für das gewinnt.

Aber es war schon klar, dass es passieren würde,

weil Prigoshin schon am Ende,

er war schon gegen die Armee gewinnt,

dass er den Wagnis der einzige Militär-Fonds ist,

die in Ukraine erfolgreich sein kann.

Aber schon am Ende Mai,

hat er ein Interview mit der Rechts-Wing-Website,

in der er gesagt hat, dass er für eine Revolution gezwungen hat.

Er hat gesagt, dass Putin auch die Rechts-Wing-Berechnung

und die Wagnis der einzige Militär-Fonds ist,

die eine komplette Militär-Fonds ist.

So, der Fall, dass Putin dann für fast ein Monat

und niemand, und everybody,

oh, it was such a surprise,

is kind of a shocking to me,

because if I knew that it was bound to happen soon enough,

how could they not know?

I mean, and we also saw now the information

that the United States did know,

which I actually thought we can talk about this,

which I thought was a very,

I mean, what they really,

on one hand they worried about the nuclear arms

and didn't want to have more militarized Russia.

On the other hand,

they so eager to get to Putin

that they were silent about this.

Okay, just choose what horrible Russia you really want

and which one is worse.

So, that was kind of an interesting balance there.

I was not scared, I walked around Moscow

in between a variety of kind of commentaries that I had to do.

In the morning I went to all the way to the Kremlin,

which is not far from me, so about 20-minute walk.

I walked around the Kremlin,

the Red Square was deadshot,

but people were marrying all around it.

And I asked the wedding party,

are they not afraid of pregosion?

And they said, which pregosion?

Who the hell is pregosion?

We're married and nothing is going to happen.

Which was sort of very Russian thing,

until we're struck by lightning,

which is going to continue living our lives.

There was some police of different kinds,

but not really dramatic amount.

There's some military vehicles,

but they were more concentrated on the outskirts of Moscow

rather than in the center.

The mood changed by the afternoon,

when in fact the news, the official news,

were reporting that the Wagner troops were marching towards Moscow

and so people got slightly more apprehensive.

But my feeling was, and I myself,

just didn't think it would happen,

didn't think that pregosion would take over,

because even though he was a military hero,

as Putin himself said numerous times in Wagner,

but there was really not many takers,

and we saw it in immediate support of the elites of Putin.

Some of them spoke out, especially the governors.

There's really not then many takers

for pregosions very violent brand of nationalism,

especially nationalism that being pushed forward by his troops,

which a lot of them are rapists and murderers.

And I was talking to younger people,

and they, the girls, and they were young women,

they were particularly completely,

I couldn't say particularly terrified,

but they were more apprehensive than anybody else,

because they said, well, that's not what we want.

So I thought that one way or another,

I mean, we saw that the pregosion troops were doing their stuff.

I mean, they were shootouts,

but it was obviously a decision by the Kremlin

not to attack them while they were going.

It was a question, why wouldn't they?

That's what my question would be to you.

I mean, of course we don't know that,

but the question, the situation was so bizarre,

because we woke up to this mutiny and thought, okay,

so the Kremlin will not watch this unfold.

And then it was very silent for a few hours,

and the army didn't do anything.

Also what you say that there was loyalty declarations for Putin,

it all sounded relatively muted compared to what could have happened.

So I was almost thinking, are they waiting who wins this?

I'm not sure, because I think that the...

I don't think so.

I mean, we know that the governors,

they have not been fans of pregosion,

and they've been quite open about it.

I mean, for example, the governor of St. Petersburg,

Big Love, he in fact has open fights with pregosion,

and pregosion has been complaining

that Big Love is not supporting the Wagner,

because pregosion is from St. Petersburg, from Leningrad.

Supporting the Wagner organization

and doesn't allow them to be buried

with great orders and whatnot.

And Big Love and some others,

I think the governor of the Svedlovsk region

were saying, well, it's all wonderful,

but your people, when they come back,

the fact that they were fighting and they were brave

really doesn't make them reformed citizens.

They kind of don't want them around us.

So there is a bit of a tension there.

It was surprising.

I mean, I thought that in the beginning

Putin only spoke at 10 in the morning yesterday,

and was very forceful, saying it's beauty,

it's a step in the back, it's treason, it's this and that.

We're not going to let them get away with that.

And yet, here they were marching all across Russia,

damaging property, damaging roads.

They were in Lipetsk region,

which is not far from Moscow already.

The people, the military there were digging out roads,

so the Wagner march wouldn't be that successful.

I mean, it seemed like just the insanely bad

Dr. Strangelove, Russian version,

steadily Kubrick kind of ridiculous comedy.

But tragedy.

And so Putin was very forceful, but then nothing was done.

And of course, and I'm sure that the negotiations

with Lukashenko and all around that began much earlier

than we found out.

But then I think the problem with Putin is that,

yes, they were able to resolve the crisis.

But the problem with him is that on one hand

he's waiting out to see which side

and how he needs to act.

And then he's rash when he's insulted.

I mean, he's suddenly, because if he didn't say,

or it's mutiny, he would say, well, you know,

these people are demanding the recognition

and we are going to sort it out with them.

Instead he went out and was very angry at Prigoshin personally,

because Prigoshin is his creation.

And suddenly Prigoshin,

actually wasn't sudden, but suddenly for Putin,

Prigoshin turned against him.

So Putin made the statements.

Negotiations were going on.

That's why they were not eliminating them on the road,

because they would be more bloodshed.

Then it's all over.

Putin technically has a strong hand,

because another thing that this mutiny appraisals showed

is that although Putin doesn't have a strong position,

I mean, we know that the war has been going on

for almost a year and a half.

We are not winning.

And the fact that Prigoshin is able to do this

clearly is a sign of weakness.

On the other hand, we are seeing that,

even if you say the response was muted,

many said we won the constitutional order,

we won the elected president.

However Putin is elected and whatnot,

but the official president.

So muted or not,

Putin got a little bit of a boost,

because it became clear that not every coup against Putin

is going to be successful.

So those who want that coup in the future,

and I'm sure there will be many more,

still would have to think carefully how to do about it,

because one of the things I'm sure Prigoshin was counting on

to some degree is that,

because Putin is so unpopular among the elites,

not necessarily among the people that much,

but among the elites,

that now they would take any opportunity to get him out.

Well, no, that's not.

And so that, to some degree, strengthened Putin's hands.

His problem also is that his grand up in the sky,

he spoke on Saturday at 10,

very forcefully, very firmly,

when it was resolved Saturday night,

and Lukashenko,

Belarusian president who was supposedly

his mini-me or large-me doing the negotiations with Prigoshin,

came out and said we agreed on everything

because he was going to Belarus,

then brilliant move would have been for Putin to come out again

and said yes, we said it's mutiny,

now it's forgiven, the reason it is forgiven is XYZ,

because other than that, okay,

so first you said we're not going to tolerate it,

and now we're tolerating it.

So what's the problem?

So he got a stronger hand,

but then he himself weakened it

by his inability to handle crisis in front of the people.

But that's also a big question now.

So Putin says Prigoshin is a traitor,

then makes a deal with him.

We know that Putin usually when he calls someone a traitor,

that person is expiring sooner or later by being assassinated.

So is it thinkable that Prigoshin actually goes to Belarus,

stays there,

and this is a recipe for further chaos and disaster?

Totally thinkable,

and that's another thing,

Putin speaks to whoever you want to speak to,

speak to your elites, speak to the people,

speak to the global community,

explain something,

because then it's all exactly our speculation,

because knowing Putin,

and knowing Prigoshin by the way,

the man that has been promising to slaughter his enemies with Sledgehammer,

is going to go into a sunset in Belarus

and stays there somewhere in the woods,

in a hut, you know, I don't know.

Not likely.

Right, exactly.

Collecting stamps and growing cucumbers.

No, that's just not really kind of a person.

But we also know Putin is not forgiving

of somebody who crossed his path,

which is exactly what Prigoshin did.

So, that's not out of the realm of possibility.

But it's also Prigoshin,

it's not some, you know, a liberal oppositionist

who makes his living by arguing against the oppressive state.

I mean, this is the man who wants

bloodier, more militant,

crazier, right winger and nationalism

than Putin probably ever dreamt of.

So, basically, this story is not over,

because while Prigoshin goes to Belarus,

does he stay there, what does he plan?

But also let's remember that all these Wagnerites

that are now being forgiven,

they're loyal to Prigoshin, they're not loyal to Putin.

Part, part maybe, no?

Partly they stay between me.

I don't know, they made a deal.

They made a deal.

In some ways it was clever,

I guess, not to eliminate Prigoshin.

I'm sure their hands were itching to do that,

because then he would have become a martyr.

He was a hero of the war and this and that.

That would have created more problems.

But also that kind of person being shipped off.

What, is he going to go to Syria?

Is he going to go to Africa?

What is he going to do?

The Wagnerites that are not forgiven,

some of them can join the army

or some sort of military establishments.

But some of them are going to go somewhere with Prigoshin.

How they are not going to become the diversion groups.

How they are not going to become people

that would come back into Russia to start

actually really foster a bloody revolution

with a patriotic agenda that Putin,

supposedly according to them,

is not forceful enough about.

So I think there's, I mean it's resolved for now,

but it's clearly not over

and will play out in the next few months

or the next few days or the next few years even.

But even if Putin resolved it for that moment,

I mean he would certainly get more suspicious,

more paranoid.

And paranoid and suspicious Putin

is a more dangerous Putin

because he becomes more rash,

more kind of, I'm thinking of the consequences.

So you know the things that you and I discussed for many years

is that he was a good tactician.

I mean now clearly that's just not working out for him anymore.

Because he still thinks he's in Putin who makes decisions

and then miraculously it works out.

Well miraculously nothing works out for him anymore.

Ja.

I mean we were waiting for Sergei Shoigu,

the Defense Minister to appear.

So this morning he appeared in a video

that they posted, we don't know exactly

if this was a new video or not.

But he seems to be back,

otherwise this video wouldn't be released at all.

Any thoughts on this,

why Shoigu was out of the picture?

There were rumors that he might have been fired,

which would have been a big humiliation

because that's what Prigoshin wanted Putin to do.

Well one of the things,

Prigoshin wanted Shoigu fired for a month.

So that didn't happen.

In fact Shoigu stayed,

remember there was all these military people,

there was a Gerasimov,

and then there was Suravikin

and Suravikin was bloodier

and more forceful in fighting.

And so Prigoshin was a fan of Suravikin

but was not a fan of Gerasimov

because Gerasimov was the one

who supposedly

looks at a bigger picture.

I don't really know what the bigger picture is

in this war, but supposedly.

And so that's what not Prigoshin was

was interested in.

So,

and then in fact

when Prigoshin started pushing for changes

Shoigu stayed

and Gerasimov once again got on top

and Suravikin was sort of pushed out.

Not that he disappeared, but he pushed out

and then became

a man in charge of connection

to the Wagner group.

Right after that,

Prigoshin decided to go on

to go to have his march on more.

I mean Putin doesn't really do

things

under pressure from his advisors.

So if Prigoshin wants this,

it's not gonna happen.

I think, I mean I'm afraid to predict.

I just think that it's not gonna happen

the way Prigoshin wants it.

Shoigu may go,

but it would not be as if

he has done it.

He didn't want it right.

Then, so there probably

would be some shuffling.

On the other hand, it may not be

because basically one of them

as you know Russia,

this endless scenarios,

one is crazier than another.

And one of them,

Putin made Prigoshin

and then actually allowed him to,

as I said, balance out power

with the army.

Maybe it was all staged all together.

I doubt it,

but nothing could be

out of the realm of possibility

of the crazy Byzantine

Kremlin with the great secrecy

and great conspiracies

and whatnot.

So possibly to once again

push the army more into action

and also

in the same action

eliminate Prigoshin

because he's become too much of a,

but bloodlessly

eliminate Prigoshin because

he becomes too much of a liability.

He becomes too much

of a problem.

So that's possible.

That makes him very clever,

but that's a possibility.

But also it's possible

that Putin needs this war.

As long as the war goes on,

he's Putin.

The minute the war,

if it's not won,

which I don't know how,

doesn't seem like it can be by Russia,

if it's not won,

then he's a nobody

and if he's a nobody,

he doesn't exist.

So he will continue this slow,

kind of not almost offensive anymore,

but defensive war.

So exactly what Schygo

has been doing.

So it's possible that

it will all remain the same

and it would be

kind of this frozen

conflict.

But frozen in terms of it is now.

You go back a little further,

you step a little

more consulate.

So it may be

that's

Die Weise, in der es gespielt hat, auch für Putin möglich ist, weil es für ein Statistisch-Kohol

erlaubt ist.

Aber auch, dass der Rechtwinger, der Nationalist sagt, dass ihr euch vorsichtig seid,

weil das ist die Fähigkeit, die wartet auf dich.

So jetzt hat Putin mit der liberalen Opposition gelandet.

Er hat eine Message zu der Rechtwinger Opposition, die wunderschön ist,

in der es ein Statistisch-Kohol-Situation ist.

Vielleicht ist es nicht so glücklich, dass es ein Statistisch-Kohol ist.

Aber was ich gerade auf Telegram geschrieben habe,

ist ein Interview mit Konstantin Remchukov,

Editor-in-Chief von Neza Wissemeier-Gazetta,

der gesagt hat, dass er selbst etwas bizarr ist,

aber er hat gesagt, dass viele der politischen Ältersten,

die auch die Privat-Jetzen auf Saturdays verlassen,

als die Pläne von Putin, wie wir sie sehen können,

wir wissen nicht genau, wer in diesen Plänen war.

Aber es seemed, dass viele Leute ziemlich schmutzig waren

und was Remchukov jetzt sagt in diesem Interview,

ist, dass er denkt, dass viele Leute in der politischen Ältersten,

Putin nicht wieder als Präsident als Putin,

in den nächsten Präsidenten im Jahr 2024.

Jetzt denken wir immer, dass Putin in der Datasche nicht stecken wird,

weil es nicht richtig ist.

Aber die Frage ist, was ist Ihre Analyse,

wie stark der Diskontent in der politischen Ältersten ist

und wie viele Leute das für den Moverside wünschen?

Ich denke, dass viele Leute das für den Moverside wünschen.

Sie haben lange Zeit für den Moverside wünschen,

auch im Februar 2022,

als er das Sicherheitskanzler in den Jahr 2022 schmutzig war.

Sie haben es wünscht, willig, willig und so weiter.

Aber Glückwunsch mit dem.

Glückwunsch für die, die sagen wollen,

dass sie den Präsidenten nicht für den Moverside wünschen.

Wenn das so ist, wie gesagt,

dann es ist, das ist echter Tal.

Ich frage mich natürlich auch nicht,

ob man die Analyse ribsellieren,

aber ich bin sicher,

dass der Putin

Ich bin sicher, dass Leute in der Regierung mehr wissen.

In meinem Quartier gibt es ca. 70 Autos.

Es gibt 70 Plätze.

Normalerweise, ich weiß nicht, 45, 50.

Es waren fünf Autos am Sonntag.

Alle anderen haben es klargestellt.

Wie ihr seht, sind die Airpläne gefilmt,

um in Georgia zu gehen, um in Turkey zu gehen.

Prices sind zweimal oder dreimal geflogen.

Es waren noch Pläne, um die Passen zu verabschieden.

Aber die Passen waren sehr hoch.

Und dann begann es, sie zu verabschieden.

Aber das ist nicht, wie man das sagen kann.

Es war eine klare Krise.

Ich glaube, die Krise wäre mehr und mehr.

Und die Krise hat sicherlich nicht in den langen Runden geholfen.

Aber in dem kurzen Runden wird es weiter.

Und es scheint, dass das, was er so etwas beherrscht,

ist, weil er denkt, dass jede Krise, die er solch kann,

eine oder andere, egal wie schlecht,

ist noch etwas, das er erlaubt,

um in Kraft zu bleiben.

Ich glaube, er ist delusional.

Ich glaube, dass es eine Krise wäre,

wenn alle Erleichter sagen,

forget it, that's it, we can do it.

Aber wir werden das für eine lange Zeit warten.

Es waren viele von ihnen im letzten Jahr und ein halben Jahr.

Und noch, ich meine...

Nichts passiert.

Nichts passiert.

Und die Governoren sind da.

Und sie haben den Prime Minister in seinem Arbeitsplatz

und Sergei Sabanin, der Mayor von Moskau,

dass wir noch weiter gehen.

Und so, ja, das wäre eine rationale Lösung.

Aber so weit, und wie du weißt,

Russland ist nicht immer rationell.

Es ist nicht von A zu B zu C.

Es ist von A zu Z, K zu B und zurück.

Ja, dieses Jahr wird es kommen.

Aber in jeder Krise geht es zu diesem Moment.

Aber wir können nicht...

Ich denke, wir können nicht sicherlich sagen,

wann dieses Moment kommt.

Ich dachte auf Alexei Navalny und seine Saison am Wochenende.

Ich meine, seine Leben ist natürlich sehr gefährlich

in einem Moment der Mutinie,

in der sie in Prisons reisen.

Und auch, wenn Putin vielleicht die erste Person,

die er mitgeteilt ist, nicht Brigotin,

mit der er mitdehnen kann,

sondern Navalny, der nicht in den Städten will,

eine Rebellion zu bringen.

Du denkst, da gibt es einen Szenario,

dass die Opposition sich selbst entdehnen kann,

außerhalb der Präsentation.

Ich meine, da gibt es keine Opposition,

und ich habe gehört,

da gibt es viele Konversationen,

die außerhalb der Opposition,

die sagen, du gehst nach den Städten.

Du gehst nach den Städten.

Du bist in London, Berlin,

und wer geht nach den Städten?

Aber auch, ich meine, es ist eine Präsentation.

Es ist eine Präsentation.

Ich meine, was ist das Kind von dem,

was du eigentlich haben kannst?

Okay, fine.

Du bist mitgegeben.

Congratulations.

Navalny wird in den Städten,

in den Städten, in den Städten, in den Städten, in den Städten.

Nein, ich habe das gehört.

Ich habe gesagt, ich werde nicht die sehr wichtige Names

nennen, die ich für das nennen,

aber ich denke,

die Erdnüge der Außenröscher,

die Außenröscher,

die geblieben,

aber un unglaublichspechmal

relativ Carbonitholiker,

die das Veglanger sieben Proszen haben

in der reflected.

Ja, das ist echt ein Puch.

Im some ways,

als sich die US-Position

etwas als das in so einer Situation

sind, dass wir das anfangen,

aber als purple

Die Wahl zwischen Putin und Prigoshin ist die Wahl zwischen Pest und Kohlera.

Und das ist warum es so schwierig für Demokratiker zu unterstützen.

Nina?

Wir sollten nicht diesen Mutanten unterstützen.

Diesen Mutanten sollte nicht in oder aus Putin unterstützen.

Denn Russland ist die Wahl zwischen slow-movingem Faschismus und Faschismus mit Blut.

Und das sind nicht die guten Chancen, die alle zusammen sind.

Nina Khrushchov, vielen Dank für das Gespräch mit uns.

Und wir werden immer mit euch sehen. Vielen Dank.

Sie hörten das Falter Radio, den Podcast mit Raimund Löw.

Copyright WDR 2020

Machine-generated transcript that may contain inaccuracies.