The Realignment: Realignment Supercast AMA Teaser | Bidenomics Review, Saagar's Wedding, Vivek's Rising Polls, Modern Church Committee, and More...

Marshall and Sager here.

Welcome back to the realignments, supercast, exclusive AMA Q&A episodes.

Hey, guys, we've been on break.

Sager was in India for his kind of wedding.

I was traveling a bit of vacation, but we're glad to be back.

We'll offer one or two bonus questions to the non-subscribers because

I know I promised you a few of those, but let's just kind of dive into it.

This is pretty straightforward.

If you want access to the full recording,

you go to realignment.supercast.com or click the link in the show notes.

You can do this by also going to realignment.supercast.com.

Okay, so first question, which relates to your stuff, Sager, is Sager,

congratulations on wedding number one, congrats on the first ceremony in India.

How was the trip?

Any cool observations while in India?

And Sager, can you clarify what the number one aspect of that is?

Yeah, we had an Indian wedding ceremony.

The ceremony was conducted because all four of my grandparents are over 90 years old.

So they don't want to travel to the United States.

And I think we can understand that.

So we're actually getting genuinely, like legally married here in the US next year.

But I thought we should try and do that as speedy as possible in India.

So that's where we were over there for a couple of days from.

Overall, it was a great trip.

I don't know if I have any big like meta observations other than a very classic.

It is always stunning to me.

It's like every time I go to India, it's like the country has aged like 15 years,

even though I haven't been, even though it's only been like a year or

whatever in between my previous visit.

So it's always just fascinating to me just to see how rapid development happens

and to just see a lot of the disparity.

You know, you go from literally one, one moment you feel like you're in Singapore

and then one moment you feel like you're in 1925 and both coexist in the same country.

So that's always kind of been India's deal.

When I was in the 90s, though, it was much more like no streets or bad streets,

like trash, you know, not like very stagnant development.

And very recently, it just feels totally different.

So it's interesting.

It feels alive in a certain way.

Nice. Next free question.

This is a good one.

Future for Vivek.

This is relevant because a poll just came out today.

We're recording this on July 20th that shows Vivek tied nationally with Ron DeSantis.

Obviously, this is just one poll.

Apparently the group that conducted the poll is a little sketch,

but I still think the narrative direction matters here.

So the question is future for Vivek.

This point seems like a vexed run for president has been a success in that

he's polling in the mid single digits and not at 1%.

If you were Vivek, how would you look at this success and take it and carry it forward?

Would you try and get in a position within a possible Trump admin run for a lower level office,

write some books or further pursue the media space through something like a podcast?

I'm interested to hear how you best think he can avoid the fate of someone like Yang,

who feels like he's lost a lot of relevancy since his presidential run.

What do you think, soldier?

Obvious to me that the poll is bullshit.

Just let's put that on there.

I can make sure that everybody knows there's no way that's accurate.

Don't go off a single one.

Go off real clear politics average.

He's not tied in a real clear politics average for a reason.

OK, so let's put that aside in the RCP average and in 538 action.

By the way, I would love to see what the 538 score on this poll is,

because I'm already willing to say.

Anyway, obviously he's doing well.

So what does that mean?

Yeah, I think he needs to go for a Trump admin position.

I don't think he would have any success in local elected office.

That's just really not what he's trying to do here.

Ohio is a tough state if you're a Republican.

Like that's like that's where he's doing it.

Oh, yeah, I actually forgot he's from Ohio.

Yeah, there's not no way it's going to happen.

It's exactly.

I mean, you know, JD Vans was an outsider.

He had a real issue there.

And he literally is like not only from there, move back, you know,

did the whole thing and still face a pretty significant upheaval.

And he was going for Senate straight off the bat.

And it's not like a Senate seat is going to open up or that he will be able to

come in even after this to try and enter the Senate primary because we already

have some pretty well established candidates.

So let's that first thing there.

I think his role is obvious.

I think he needs to go for a non cabinet related posts, non cabinet.

I think he needs to do an executive like an executive if Trump wins.

It's a huge if if Trump wins the presidency, he needs to be the next

Kellyanne Conway, like an in-house attack dog, pit bull advisor on television.

Shouldn't be the press secretary.

You don't want to be the press secretary.

The press secretary gets the shit kicked out of him every day.

And then you have to defend every single stupid thing that Trump does.

He wants to be able to do it on his schedule.

That's exactly what Kellyanne did.

So that's what I think he needs to do.

Yeah, that's a great answer.

And folks know I'm not a fan of a big.

So I'm checking.

I'm just noting that I've been quite hostile to him.

So, you know, all that noted.

But that said, I think he deserves legit

plots for getting as far as he has done.

He really clearly had a theory of the case here for his candidacy

and is actually moving forward in the ways that lots of other

outsider candidates have not had.

So all that said, I think something he needs to start doing now,

but he's actually at this stage is he needs to do this to this deal

over the weekend soccer.

He needs to jettison his like silly Hail Mary stuff.

So an example of that was his we don't believe in America anymore as millennials.

So I'm going to make it so that if you want to vote,

you have to pass a civics test if you're under 25 or you have to serve in the military.

That's just silly.

Like that's the definition of something.

The vac is very good at like pleasing older people.

I think that's clearly been a part of his personality.

This guy said he's had he did well in school.

All those obvious things.

That idea of like a civic test for voting because like the young kids

are just like stupid and silly and like zoomery.

That's something you do when you're thinking to yourself,

how can I make a well-meaning conservative Fox News grandma in New Hampshire happy?

That's not something you do if you're actually saying like,

hey, what's my actual deal here?

And I get why he was doing that as a Hail Mary style thing.

But now that he's a real candidate, I think he is a real candidate.

He has to stop doing that.

He needs to stop the like, I'm going to shock and on Mexico thing.

Like there have been plenty.

And look, he was like once again, this is the excuse that I think he's good

at seeing where the fuck's going.

You know, seeing increasing number of Republicans say things like,

and look, like we're going to hold the cartels accountable.

We're going to hold the government of Mexico accountable.

But what none of those actually professional politicians did is said,

I am going to shock and on Mexico.

There's just like a level of like Kevin.

I don't think he knew what the terms I think he knew.

I think he'd heard the term shock and on back when we were all kids.

But I don't think he understood that the term shock and on literally meant

like a physical invasion of of Mexico.

He switched his burbage to I would use drones.

Like, dude, that isn't what shock and on means shock and on means

Patriot missiles, bigger bombs, they, you know, 101st Airborne, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

So what I'm saying is he needs to stop doing the silly things and get a little more serious.

And the last part, I want to speak to the Andrew Yang part of the question.

You know, Andrew is a friend of the show.

We've talked to Andrew in a bunch of different directions.

I think the thing that Vivek already wouldn't do that Andrew didn't understand

is Andrew, I think, was too attracted to being an outsider and didn't

meld himself to team Biden in a way that he would have needed to do to remain

relevant. So what do I mean by that? So to your point, Sager, your whole point

here is, hey, like he could be the Kelly on Conway, Vivek clearly understands

that Trump is the future. Trump is the party.

His political success is very much like leveraged to that Trumpy version

of the Republican party. So he's going to be leveraged that way.

Andrew could have seen the same opportunity.

Andrew could have seen like, hey, look, like I'm a young guy, I'm in my forties.

Like there isn't a clear successor to Joe Biden.

There are a bunch of things Joe Biden is doing, though, but I am interested in.

I'm interested in like changing the higher education system.

I'm interested in the future of work.

I'm interested in infrastructure, interested in AI, all these different topics.

He could have been the guy who was able to articulate those things.

He already had the CNN contract.

I just think that because he thought he could be mayor of New York

and I understand why he thought that was a thing in twenty twenty one.

He basically pieced out from his connection to Biden land.

And I think if he had remained tied like this is to your point, too,

he didn't have to become secretary of blank.

He just could have been like, hey, look, ma'am, I'm Andrew Yang,

but actually the Bidenomics Manufacturing Investment, I'm the only person who could

articulate, oh, that's a good thing.

He would have been really the toast of the town if you did that.

Yeah, Yang, he had an opportunity.

You know, Biden did like him actually.

He always Biden was intrigued by his campaign.

So, you know, it's one that look, it was a conscious choice to kind of decide

not to go in that direction.

I respect the choice, but I do think that if you are going to do that,

then you have to have a genuine entrepreneurialism.

And, you know, at the end of the day, success speaks for everything.

So the fact that he's not at the center of the conversation shows

that Vivek is taking the right, Vivek is taking the right tactic

because he has effectively made himself the attack dog of all the attack

dogs on Trump's behalf, because Trump is the center of the universe.

Now, that's not a good strategy to get elected president.

But like I said, if you want to be killed and yeah, that's great.

I also think what he needs to do is Vivek needs to nuke to Santa's

on the debate stage.

That's his job.

So on the debate stage, he's already qualified.

Whether Ron actually shows up or not, we're not sure yet, but he

it's going to be interesting, I think, to see what he does.

That's what I think you should do.

That's a that's a run.

And he's been talking up the debates for a long time.

So that's definitely I think that's a real narrative breakthrough moment for him.

OK, last free question.

RFK as a Republican, if RFK Jr.

were running as a Republican, would he be in second place in the GOP primary?

If so, why?

I 100% think that we're so once again, I'm going to preface this.

Yes, I know there's the part of the listenership who is like throwing

their phone on the ground.

He's liberal.

He holds positions on climate change, etc., etc., etc.

that are not aligned at the modern Republican Party.

That is all true.

However, there is a very specific valence to RFK Jr.'s campaign

that I feel is very much compatible with the modern Republican Party,

the skepticism of leading institutions, his deep, deep hatred of the medical

establishment and Dr. Fauci, etc., etc.

Obviously, to this point, and his hatred of the Ukraine policy,

he has chosen to highlight issues that are more in valence

with the Republican Party than the Democratic Party.

I think if you were going out talking about climate change every other day,

this would not be true.

But that's just why I think this question, I think, is

legitimately formed.

But yeah, what's your take on this?

I don't know if you'd be number two, but I don't think you'd be number three.

Yeah.

I mean, I think the last name is, the last name is good.

The politics, he'd have to change things up a little bit, but I do think

he could successfully do it.

And given where everybody else is, I think he could be doing quite well.

And I think you're right in that, but at the same time, I mean, in terms

of like coding, right, it is true, but I just think it's important to say

codes more online, right, than actual, right.

Oh, that's such a good point.

So I think the same dynamics.

Can you explain what you mean by that?

That's such a good point.

Online right is a world kind of self-contained in terms of its issue set.

And that, that, you know, DeSantis, I think at his worst is also pandering.

But at the end of the day, DeSantis is not really somebody who relies entirely

on the internet for his, for his actual governor actually got 20% of the vote.

Often is known to primary voters via his COVID policy, lockdown policy,

economic growth policy.

And yeah, it's an actual elected politician.

So like all of those three things are just kind of, you could both be online

and really be elected.

And I think that, you know, is DeSantis' best strengths always, in my opinion,

come from being the governor of Florida and what he did in order to get himself

actually be governor of Florida, in my opinion.

Whereas I think that him and RFK overlap on the, I guess, least helpful electoral side.

That's such a good point.

And actually, you've now, I'm active listening.

You've convinced me to withdraw my take that you'd be in second,

because as I'm thinking what you just said and combining it with the fact

that I get the sense that the voters on the right that RFK junior could most

poll are already supporting Trump in the first place.

Yeah, exactly.

Because what the vac is what the vac is successfully done is there's a third

of the party that does that is like conservative, traditionally,

but doesn't like Trump or like like Trump wants to move on.

The vac has done a great job of taking a lot of those voters

from DeSantis, from Nikki Haley, from Mike Pence, on and on and on.

Yeah, you're actually totally right.

Like at best, RFK junior takes like six to eight percent of Trump.

But like, you know, like, for example, DeSantis tried to do

the thing where he was like, but Trump was the one who like bowled

before Dr. Fauci, the voters who are most interested in that argument.

RFK junior may pick some of them up, but that's coming from Trump.

That's not coming from DeSantis.

So yeah, actually, he wouldn't be in second.

That's a great point.

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Machine-generated transcript that may contain inaccuracies.