The Daily: An Armored Train and a Dangerous New Alliance?

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From the New York Times, I'm Sabrina Tavernisi, and this is The Daily.

In a rare move this week, the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un,

traveled to Russia to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

My colleague, Julian Barnes, on what Russia wants from North Korea,

how far it may go to get it, and why the consequence could be dangerous

not just for the region, but for the world.

It's Thursday, September 14th.

So, Julian, tell me about this visit by the North Korean leader to Russia.

I mean, this is, of course, an extremely isolated leader who almost never leaves North Korea,

and here, Vladimir Putin is giving him an audience and a red carpet treatment in Russia.

What's going on here?

So, you're right. Kim Jong-un almost never leaves North Korea.

They don't have a lot of allies.

He doesn't have to travel for diplomatic meetings or the like.

In fact, he hasn't left the borders of North Korea since the COVID pandemic.

Oh, wow.

But what we have here is that Kim Jong-un got on his armored train.

He does not fly like his father and grandfather before him.

He travels by train.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un slowly rolls towards Russia

in Soviet-era armored train cars painted green.

It is unusual and quite a spectacle.

It moves very slowly.

And these are moving policies outfitted to the hills.

It was a days-long process out of North Korea.

He takes the train from Pyongyang across the sliver of border between Russia and North Korea

and travels to Russia's far East Cosmodrome.

This is the site where they have rockets, missiles,

the sort of best of Russian technology on display.

But Kim Jong-un wasn't there just for a tour of ballistic missiles.

He was not there just for the lunch of Lincoln Berries and dock.

He was there to make a deal with Vladimir Putin.

And it was a deal on weapons.

And at the end of the visit, Kim Jong-un kind of says what Vladimir Putin wants to hear.

That he's ready for a strategic and tactical agreement,

a strategic and tactical cooperation between the two countries.

Now we're still learning the details of all that.

But what we know is that this meeting is going to have big implications

for the war in Ukraine and reverberations far beyond that around the world.

So what does Russia actually want from North Korea?

I mean, of course, North Korea is this lonely, totalitarian state obsessed with its own military.

But I don't think of it as the global superpower military that Russia is.

So what does it have to offer Russia?

Yeah, you're right that North Korea isn't the most sophisticated with its military technology.

But what Russia wants isn't the cutting edge technology.

What Russia wants is something far simpler.

It needs artillery shells.

Artillery has become so important in the Ukraine war.

It's really hard to oversell how important it is.

These are the big guns, right?

These are the long guns that fire kind of large shells downrange of the battlefield.

And, you know, almost any war movie has the sort of big guns firing at opposing infantry, right?

It's a staple of how we conceive of big wars.

Right. We're really talking about the lowly, humble shell,

like the thing that they're feeding into these big guns, the most basic element of war.

That's right. It's a giant bullet, right?

It's not a hypersonic missile.

It's not a sophisticated drone.

It's a giant bullet that has an explosive in it and a fuse and its fire downrange.

And almost every major battle in Ukraine has involved artillery.

And as a result, both sides are firing millions upon millions of artillery shells,

and they're starting to run out.

We, of course, have talked on the show about Ukraine's efforts to get military support.

Going around the world and asking for military equipment and supplies like ammunition.

But, you know, Russia is a major military manufacturer.

I don't think of Russia as running out of something as simple as ammunition.

Well, Russia, they can make two million shells a year.

They're firing more than 10 million shells a year.

And that's a huge deficit.

Wow. That is a huge deficit.

Okay. So what's the plan?

Well, one plan is that Russia has huge stocks of artillery shells that they've been making for

years and years and haven't had to fire, and they're stored in warehouses.

And that's where they've been tapping their supplies.

But Russia is not that great at storing their weapons.

Look, it turns out ammunition needs to be maintained.

You turn it around, you inspect it, you make sure it's still good.

Russia has a tendency of just shoving their artillery in a warehouse and, you know, forgetting it.

So like it gets stale?

Kinda. Like what happens is the fuses deteriorate over time, right?

And so the older artillery shell is less deadly for the Ukrainian troops.

Okay, so basically Russia has the goods, but they're old and kind of pass their sell-by date,

basically. So what are Russia's other options to get shells and to keep this stockpile going?

Well, they had to turn to the world market.

From very early on during the war, Russia started to go to other countries looking for

military supplies. But there's a real problem with that.

Putin is looking for every conceivable lifeline right now.

Right at the start of the war, the U.S. and Europe had agreed to

sanctions and export controls to halt the Russian military production.

So they can't just go to any country and buy military equipment or even buy the parts for

military equipment. They need to go to countries that are aligned with their interests, that are

friendly to them. A U.S. official says Russia has asked China for support, including military aid

and equipment. The most important of that would be China. China has the missiles, the artillery

shells, the drones that Russia would need. President Biden warning China of serious consequences

if China were to get involved directly in Ukraine.

But China wasn't willing to sell that to Russia. They did not want to risk the ire of the rest of

the world and possibly be cut off from international trade. Right, China has a lot to lose at that

department. China has a lot to lose. So Russia had to turn to others. Putin met with Iran's

president and its supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. And they went to Iran and Russia started

buying drones from Iran. The State Department says Iranian drones were used in strikes across

the country, including the capital of Kiev. But it didn't solve the most urgent problem,

which was a shortage of artillery shells. And so Russia then turns to North Korea.

But why North Korea? Well, the Korean peninsula is the world's repository

of artillery shells. Remember, North Korea and South Korea are still technically at war.

There has been an uneasy armistice for 70-plus years here. But as a result, both North Korea

and South Korea have huge stockpiles of well-maintained artillery shells. The South Korean artillery

shells fit the big guns that US and NATO use. The North Korean artillery shells fit the big guns

that Russia uses. So if you're Russia and you're wondering, where can I get more artillery shells,

North Korea is the obvious answer. But the problem is Russia and North Korea aren't particularly

close. So, Julien, remind us what that relationship has been over the past few decades.

Well, it's hard to find a country more isolated on the planet than North Korea. I mean,

there has been some relations between Russia and North Korea, but it's been pretty uneasy.

You'll remember that in the 1990s and 2000s, Moscow went along with the UN sanctions on North Korea

to try to stop North Korea from developing its nuclear program. And so it's not like North Korea

looks at Moscow and thinks that they're their great defender. Moscow has been part of the

international community that's been trying to constrain their quest for an atomic weapon.

So despite their shared past with communism, these countries really haven't been allies

much at all in recent history. That's right. It's really the war in Ukraine

that shifted things because all of a sudden, Russia needed something from North Korea.

And so a courtship of North Korea began. And Julien, what does that courtship look like?

Well, a year ago, Russia starts asking North Korea for artillery and rockets.

But the U.S. learns about this and the U.S. declassifies that information and pushes it out.

The U.S. is trying to stop the deal by shining a light on it. And it did seem to work, at least for

a time. According to U.S. intelligence, the shipments of artillery shells don't go, don't go in any

sort of significant numbers in any case. But Russia keeps pushing here. Russia really needs

the artillery shells. So this past July, Russia sends its defense minister, Sergei Shoryug,

to visit North Korea. And it was the first time since Soviet times that a Russian defense minister

had visited North Korea. And so he goes to join Kim Jong-un at what North Korea calls a Victory Day

parade. This is the annual military parade that marks the armistice between South Korea and North

Korea. Victory Day in air quotes. Yes. And it was, you know, a big display. There was a dais,

you see Kim Jong-un flanked by Shoryug on one side and a Chinese Politburo member on the other.

And they were saluting these intercontinental missiles that are banned by the U.N.

It was a big display of friendship between North Korea and China, but most importantly, North Korea

and Russia. And behind the scenes, what's happening at this event is a negotiation between

Kim and Shoryug, a negotiation about the next meeting. Kim wants Vladimir Putin to come to North

Korea. Mr. Shoryug says that's not going to happen, but he makes a counteroffer.

He offers to have Kim come and meet Putin in Russia.

So that is what led to the meeting this week. That's right. It was those negotiations that set

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Julian, do we have any details on exactly what Putin and Kim Jong-un are discussing in Russia

this week? Like, what are the specifics of a potential deal?

Well, American officials tell us it'll be a few days until we learn a lot of details about what

is agreed between the two leaders. But the contours of the talks, we do understand.

As we've discussed, Russia wants the artillery. They have some need for missiles.

What North Korea wants is one thing that they always ask for, which is food aid.

Food aid because North Korea has a really, really terrible economy and sometimes doesn't have the

food to feed its people. Right. The North Korean economy is so isolated that its people are malnourished

and it does not have enough food. So asking for food aid is always critical. But in this case,

there's something even more important that North Korea wants, something that I would describe as

Russia's crown jewels. Okay, crown jewels. I'm assuming this has to do with the thing that Russia

is very good at, which is nuclear weapons. Yes. Now, North Korea, as far as we understand,

is not directly asking for nuclear technology. But what they want is ballistic missile technology

and nuclear-powered submarine technology. All of these are platforms in which nuclear weapons

can be placed and which make them harder to detect and harder to stop.

Is the assumption then that North Korea already has the technology to build nuclear weapons,

but what they actually need are the delivery devices?

Yeah. I mean, remember, North Korea has several dozen nuclear weapons, right?

But they've been struggling with two things. They've been struggling with miniaturizing these

devices and the delivery device, making a missile that's reliable enough to reach any point they

want to hit. And Julian, what's the idea of miniaturizing? Well, think of the movie Oppenheimer,

where the United States is building the original atomic bomb, right? That thing was massive,

right? Huge, huge. They had to push it out the back of an airplane. Right. Well, modern nuclear

weapons are put on top of missiles that are launched from submarines or ground-based launchers.

But to do that, you need a much smaller bomb, right? And if you can only shrink it down so much,

you need a much more reliable and powerful missile to take it where it needs to go. Got it.

Officials have told us that nuclear technology is not on the table. That is not being discussed.

Russia has no intention of giving North Korea the plans to make a nuclear bomb or miniaturize

their nuclear bomb. But what is on the table is this missile technology, and that's very important.

The North Korean track record on missile launches is mixed. Some of their missiles

misfire. Some of their missiles do not reach their targets. Russian missiles are reliable.

And if Moscow can teach them how to make a better missile, that is something North Korea wants.

But I have to imagine there are risks here for Russia, right? I mean,

they share a border with North Korea. Like, this would leave them with a fairly unstable

nuclear neighbor. Historically, Russia hasn't wanted unstable countries to have nuclear weapons.

I mean, they were part of the international effort to stop Iran's nuclear program. They

participated in sanctions against North Korea. Both countries in its backyard, effectively.

Yes. And North Korea is a proliferator. They could turn around and sell this to another country.

And this is not something that Russia wants North Korea selling. If anyone's going to sell

it, Russia wants to sell it. Right. So it would be a real show of desperation if Russia actually went

for this. The more technology Russia gives North Korea, the more desperate they are.

In some ways, this meeting is a measure of what Russia thinks. Where they are in the

war in Ukraine. How much are they willing to give to North Korea? How much do they need these

artillery shells? And Putin did say something this week that suggested the crown jewels were on the

table. While waiting for Kim at the Cosmodrome, he was asked about this arms agreement. And will

Moscow help North Korea with satellites and rocket technology? And Putin responds,

that's why we came here. And we're not going to know for some days what the agreement is. And we

may not know for some months whether the agreement is consummated and how much technology Russia

does send. But these early indications are that a deal is on the table and both sides

want to reach an agreement. So, Julian, can we pause for a moment on the potential

of exactly that happening? Like what you're describing as a scenario here where if this deal

were to happen, North Korean rockets, which usually just, as we said, flame out somewhere off the

coast, could suddenly reach New York City. That would be incredibly destabilizing. We would have

a situation where once again, a crisis with North Korea takes central stage. And this is not

something the Biden administration wants right now, right? The Biden administration is focused on

helping Ukraine in its war against Russia. The Biden administration is focused on building allies

against a more militaristic China in the Pacific. They don't want to be focused

on North Korea and its nuclear program. But a technology shift from Russia to North Korea

moves that from the back burner to the front. Right. This would really bring to the fore North

Korea as global chaos agent and force the United States to have to deal with that fact.

That's right. This could put North Korea in a stronger position. North Korea has been crippled

by sanctions for decades without much leverage. And what it wants is to come back to the table

in a better position and a better position to normalize diplomatic relations, to normalize its

economy and to keep its nuclear weapons. And so if these negotiations with Russia make North

Korea's nuclear program stronger, more viable, more of a threat, then this deal doesn't just

have implications for the war in Ukraine. It could really change North Korea's standing on the world

stage. Which would be a real change in how the rest of the world thinks of North Korea, right?

Has dealt with North Korea. I mean, it had been ostracized, not even close to the table. Here they

would be at the table. And look, this deal could really deepen the fault lines that already exist

across the Pacific. We have stronger relations between South Korea and Japan. That's partially

about a rising China, but that's also about a North Korea threat. And so this shows you

that the European theater and the Pacific theater are intertwined. And it really makes the whole

situation far more front. This meeting is, in a way, a kind of window onto the profound reordering

of relations throughout the world, really, that the Ukraine war has wrought.

It is amazing how starkly the war in Ukraine has made this line across the world, has pushed China

and Russia closer together, but has also pushed America and its allies closer together. And

that can be quite dangerous. If we have a world where we have Russia, China, North Korea, Iran on

one side and we have NATO, Japan, South Korea on the other, that's a different world than the one

that we've known for the last few decades. And it can make some things more complicated. And this

is something my colleagues and I have been grappling with for months. What has this war in

Ukraine? What has the new alliances in Asia wrought? Is this a new Cold War? And to me, it's increasingly

looking like that is what we have. And so this story began with something simple,

like a building block of war. This story began with a humble artillery shell.

But it ends with something that looks much bigger.

Thank you, Julian. Thank you.

We'll be right back.

Here's what else you should know today. I think some of the people that are coming along next

want to have a say in how we leave the earth and how they prepare for the future they're going to

live in. On Wednesday, Republican Senator Mitt Romney of Utah, whose moderate positions and vocal

opposition to Donald Trump left him increasingly out of step with his party's base, said he would

not seek re-election in 2024. You know, I considered my age and the fact that the end of the second

term I would be in my mid-80s. And I think it's time for guys like me to get out of the way and

have people in the next generation step forward. Speaking to reporters about his decision, Romney,

the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, appeared to encourage the two leading candidates

in the next presidential race to follow his lead. Oh, I think it'd be a great thing if both

President Biden and former President Trump were to stand aside and let their respective party

pick someone in the next generation. President Biden, when he was running, said he was a

transitional figure to the next generation. Well, time to transition. And the leader of

the United Auto Workers said that his members were prepared for a strike against the three

Detroit automakers. Sean Fain, president of the UAW, said the initial strike would be limited

to a small number of factories, but that it would expand if the talks remained bogged down

past their September 14th deadline. Fain said the strike's locations would be communicated to

members on Thursday night ahead of a Friday walkout. Finally, in Libya, authorities say the

death toll in the catastrophic flood currently topping 5,000 could reach as high as 20,000 people

as rescue efforts continued. Two dams have already collapsed, and local officials now say

that a third dam located closer to the capital, Benghazi, is now on the brink of collapse.

Today's episode was produced by Rob Zipko, Shannon Lin, Summer Tamad, Mary Wilson, and Jessica Chump.

It was edited by MJ Davis Lin with help from Michael Benoit. Fact checked by Nicole Pasolka

contains original music by Will Reed, Mary and Lozano, and Rowan Nemisto, and was engineered

by Alyssa Moxley. Our theme music is by Jim Brunberg and Ben Lansverk of Wonder Lake.

That's it for the Daily. I'm Sabrina Tavernesee. See you tomorrow.

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